Bitcoin’s poor start to October continued as the cryptocurrency briefly dropped below $60,000, resulting in over $144 million in bullish position liquidations. This is surprising considering historical data shows October as Bitcoin’s strongest month, with average gains of 22% since 2013. However, social sentiment on platforms like X reflects bearish views on Bitcoin’s price recovery.
One factor impacting Bitcoin’s performance is the rising oil prices due to Middle East tensions. Investors are shifting their focus towards commodities like oil and gold, which is affecting risk asset sentiment, including Bitcoin. Polymarket bettors have mixed feelings about Bitcoin’s price direction but lean towards a range-bound movement for October, with a predicted range between $57.5K and $65K.
Despite the recent dip, Bitcoin remains relatively flat over the past 24 hours, trading just above $61,300. Other cryptocurrencies such as Ether, BNB Chain’s BNB, and XRP experienced losses, while dogecoin saw a slight increase of 2%.
While Bitcoin is currently down over 6% for the month, it is worth noting that October has historically ended positively for the cryptocurrency, delivering gains as high as 60% and an average return of 22% for investors. However, the current market sentiment on platforms like X is bearish regarding Bitcoin’s price recovery.
Looking ahead, Polymarket bettors have ruled out a move towards $70,000 for Bitcoin in October. Instead, they predict the cryptocurrency will remain within a range between $57.5K and $65K. CoinGlass data supports this prediction, showing that most gains tend to occur in the latter part of the month, with the first week typically being bearish.
While historical data offers insights, it is important to consider fundamental and macroeconomic factors that can affect trading sentiment for risk assets like Bitcoin. Currently, tensions in the Middle East have shifted investor interest towards oil and gold. Brent oil, for instance, experienced its most significant one-day jump in almost a year and is on track for an 8% weekly gain.
Additionally, geopolitical tension in the Middle East is being closely watched. Bettors on Polymarket give a 63% chance of Israel striking Iranian oil facilities in October, while the likelihood of a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities is at 35%. The upcoming U.S. presidential election also adds uncertainty to the market, with Polymarket indicating a close race between the candidates.
In the cryptocurrency market, meme coins named after political figures have seen mixed performance. The Donald Trump-themed TREMP, based on the Solana blockchain, has gained 14% in value, while the original MAGA Trump token remains flat. The Kamala Harris-themed KAMA token, however, has seen a decline of 7.5%.
Overall, while Bitcoin has had a disappointing start to October, there may still be optimism for bullish investors based on historical trends and potential market dynamics in the later part of the month.