Venezuela’s presidential election has been making headlines due to the controversies and allegations of fraud surrounding it. In an effort to shed light on the outcome of this critical election, cryptocurrency and blockchain enthusiasts from Venezuela and around the world turned to Polymarket, a well-known prediction market based on the Polygon network. The official candidate Nicolas Maduro claims victory, as does opposition leader Edmundo González. The information gathered from platforms like Polymarket can provide valuable insights in such uncertain situations.
The main challenge at the moment is verifying the accuracy of the election results from July 28. While Venezuela’s National Electoral Council declared Maduro the winner, there is insufficient information to support this claim. International observers, like the Carter Center, have stated that this election “did not meet international standards of electoral integrity and cannot be considered democratic.” Assistant Secretary for Western Hemisphere Affairs Brian A. Nichols has called on Maduro to acknowledge the true results of the election during a meeting at the Organization of American States.
On the other hand, opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who was intended to be a candidate but was politically disqualified by Maduro’s administration, declared González as the elected president. The opposition has relied on official ballots and a website to support their claim. With such divergent claims, Polymarket enters the scene.
Following the elections, tens of thousands of Venezuelans turned to Polymarket as a reliable source of real-time information about the election outcome. The Polymarket team stated that the election context highlighted the need for a platform like theirs, as truth is of utmost importance to them. In an interview, they explained that people are often conditioned to believe only media that confirms their biases and desired outcomes, and algorithms usually reinforce this bias. Polymarket, on the other hand, provides people with true odds regardless of their preferences, aiming to present a more accurate reality.
Venezuelans embraced the opportunity to gain insights from Polymarket. Guillermo Goncalves, CEO of the peer-to-peer trading platform El Dorado, regarded Polymarket as a valuable tool for monitoring sentiment during the Venezuelan elections. Despite other polls suggesting an advantage for González, traders on Polymarket favored Maduro, taking into account the flaws in the Venezuelan election process. Goncalves argued that apps like Polymarket have a significant role to play in presidential elections, offering a transparent 24/7 market for speculating on election outcomes.
The potential of cryptocurrency to aid those affected by uncertainty and the decline of democracy extends beyond information markets. El Dorado demonstrated this potential from a financial standpoint. As inflation skyrocketed the value of the Venezuelan bolivar, El Dorado observed real-time sentiment regarding the USD through their platform, which facilitated over 10,000 trades per day with USDT Tether. They noted that the price of the USD surged as election day approached, but dropped by approximately 50% the day after the election due to limited commerce and widespread protests in Venezuela.
A similar pattern emerged on Polymarket. Despite months of favoring Maduro, the odds dramatically shifted on election day, placing González as the potential winner. This exemplifies the dynamic nature of the prediction market. Polymarket allows users to witness real-time changes in odds as information is released and interpreted by the market.
Both Polymarket and El Dorado serve as examples of how technology can be instrumental during times of political turmoil. However, despite the valuable insights these platforms provide, the reality remains that conflicting results exist, leaving many Venezuelans taking to the streets to make their voices heard.