Currently, Ethereum (ETH) has been trading in a sideways range for 61 days. Let’s analyze whether there is a possibility of a breakout.
Ethereum faced significant resistance and failed to overcome it.
On the weekly timeframe, ETH has been on an upward trajectory since June 2022. During this period, it formed three consecutive higher lows (green icons), indicating increasing momentum in the price rise.
The peak of Ethereum’s growth was reached in January 2024, with a high of $2,720. It is currently positioned above the 0.382 Fibonacci level and the horizontal resistance area.
However, the asset price subsequently dipped below this area, invalidating the previous breakout.
Source: TradingView
The weekly relative strength index (RSI) is leaning bearish. Although the RSI is above the neutral level of 50, it has begun to decline. Additionally, a bearish divergence (red) has formed in the RSI, often preceding downward movements.
Analyst opinions
Cryptocurrency analysts and traders remain uncertain about the future trend of ETH.
For instance, CryptoMichNL suggests that as long as the price remains above $2150, ETH will continue to grow towards $3000:
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: X
CryptoMichNL also believes that ETH will outperform Bitcoin (BTC) due to the upcoming Dencun update:
“The Dencun update will be implemented on the final testnet in the coming days. This is likely to have a positive impact on the Ethereum price, but I would prefer to see the 0.06 barrier breached for confirmation.”
XForceGlobal utilizes Elliott wave theory in their analysis and identifies two potential scenarios for the future trend, one bullish and one bearish. CryptoGodJohn anticipates an initial price decline followed by a rebound.
ETH Forecast: Outlook for the range
On the daily timeframe, the price action and RSI readings reflect the same uncertainty.
Over the past 61 days, ETH has traded within the range of $2,200 to $2,370. It is now approaching the upper limit of the range, which coincides with the 0.382 Fibonacci resistance level.
However, although the RSI is rising, it is still below 50 (red circle), which may act as resistance.
Therefore, the future dynamics of Ethereum will depend on which boundary of the range the price manages to break through.
Source: TradingView
A successful breakout could lead to a 16% increase towards the next resistance at $2,700. Conversely, a breakdown of the $2,200 support area could result in a 17% drop towards the next support level at $1,950.
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