Bitcoin (BTC) hodlers experienced a challenging day last Monday when the price plummeted from $61,000 to $54,000 in a matter of hours. Despite the recent recovery, data suggests that the decline may not be over yet.
One key metric that raises concerns is Bitcoin’s Holder Net Position Change, which monitors whether long-term holders are accumulating more BTC or reducing their exposure. A decrease in this metric indicates that holders are cashing out, putting downward pressure on the price. Glassnode data reveals that long-term holders have been selling some of their coins since August 5, even during BTC’s spot-driven rally.
Another factor pointing towards a potential price decrease is the netflow of spot ETFs. While there were inflows on Wednesday and Thursday, indicating demand, Friday saw a netflow of -$89.73 million, suggesting more outflows than inflows. In the past, inflows into ETFs have played a crucial role in driving BTC’s price up.
If the negative inflows to ETFs continue as the new week begins, Bitcoin may struggle to hold onto the $60,000 region. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe suggests that if the monthly candle of BTC closes around $60,000, it could be a period of consolidation before a significant bullish breakout.
Current BTC price stands at $61,122, but the daily chart shows that the cryptocurrency is approaching a supply zone between $61,616 and $62,477. If Bitcoin reaches this region, it may face rejection and drop below $60,000. The negative reading on the Awesome Oscillator indicates bearish momentum, potentially leading to a decline to $60,499 in the short term.
It’s worth noting that if ETF inflows increase and long-term holders accumulate more BTC, this thesis may be invalidated, and the price could bounce back towards $63,205 or $67,058.